Central Bank Watch

How do central banks set their rates and what do markets expect?

Central Bank Watch

Monetary policy expectations analysis for global financial markets

Federal Reserve

Next Meeting Date:

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25 DAYS
14 HRS
30 MINS

Current: Loading..

Theoretical: 4.75%
Policy stance: Dovish
View FRB/US Model →
Rate Probabilities
CME FedWatch Tool

View official FOMC rate probabilities based on Fed Funds futures

View on CME Group

*For interpretation and methodology of probabilities, click here.

European Central Bank

Next Meeting Date:

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19 DAYS
08 HRS
45 MINS

Current: 3.25%

Theoretical: 3.50%
Policy stance: Dovish
View NAWM/NMCM Models →
Rate Change Probabilities*
↗ Rate Hike
0%
→ No Change
72%
↘ Rate Cut
28%

*For interpretation and methodology of probabilities, click here.

Bank of England

Next Meeting Date:

August 1, 2025

11 DAYS
11 HRS
00 MINS

Current: 5.00%

Theoretical: 4.75%
Policy stance: Hawkish
View COMPASS Model →
Rate Change Probabilities*
↗ Rate Hike
0%
→ No Change
45%
↘ Rate Cut
55%

*For interpretation and methodology of probabilities, click here.

Reserve Bank of Australia

Next Meeting Date:

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-- DAYS
-- HRS
-- MINS

Current: 4.35%

Theoretical: Coming Soon
Policy stance: Neutral
View MARTIN Model →
Rate Change Probabilities*
↗ Rate Hike
0%
→ No Change
--
↘ Rate Cut
0%

*For interpretation and methodology of probabilities, click here.

Bank of Japan

Next Meeting Date:

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-- DAYS
-- HRS
-- MINS

Current: 0.25%

Theoretical: Coming Soon
Policy stance: Neutral

Reserve Bank of India

Next Meeting Date:

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-- DAYS
-- HRS
-- MINS

Current: 6.50%

Theoretical: Coming Soon
Policy stance: Neutral

Bank of Canada

Next Meeting Date:

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-- DAYS
-- HRS
-- MINS

Current: 3.25%

Theoretical: Coming Soon
Policy stance: Neutral
🌍

Global Outlook

Comparative Analysis

Cross-jurisdictional

Average Rate: 3.56%

Policy Divergence: Moderate
Synchronization: 35%

Central Bank News

Real-time news monitoring across Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England

Federal Reserve
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European Central Bank
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Bank of England
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Research Framework & Methodology

Advanced analytical foundations for institutional-grade monetary policy expectations

Research Motivation & Strategic Goals

The accurate measurement of market expectations regarding central bank policy decisions has become increasingly crucial for monetary policy transmission, financial market stability, and macroeconomic forecasting.

  • Theoretical Rate Calculation: Deriving a robust theoretical interest rate benchmark for policy analysis
  • Market Stability: Providing transparent and accurate expectations to reduce uncertainty and volatility around policy meetings
  • Cross-Jurisdiction Application: Extending methodologies beyond Federal Reserve analysis
Probability Methodology

I use a transparent, futures-implied framework to estimate policy rate outcomes. The focus is on clear assumptions, reproducible calculations, and consistent updates as new market prices arrive.

  • Market-Implied Inputs: Probabilities are derived from current futures pricing and rate step assumptions
  • Transparent Process: The methodology and formulas are documented so results can be checked and replicated
  • Iterative Improvements: Model refinements are introduced over time and reflected in methodology notes

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Probabilities

View market-implied probabilities for FOMC policy decisions on CME Group's official FedWatch Tool

CME FedWatch Tool

Official FOMC Rate Probabilities

The CME Group FedWatch Tool provides the industry-standard probabilities for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, calculated from Fed Funds futures market data. View comprehensive probability distributions, historical trends, and detailed meeting-by-meeting analysis.

Visit CME FedWatch Tool

European Central Bank Rate Probabilities

Market expectations for ECB Governing Council decisions derived from EUR interest rate market data

Next Meeting Analysis
July 24, 2025 ECB Meeting
  • Hold at 3.25%: 72% probability
  • Cut to 3.00%: 28% probability
  • Market Consensus: Likely hold
Detailed Analysis →

Bank of England Rate Probabilities

MPC meeting expectations derived from GBP interest rate market data

Next Meeting Analysis
August 1, 2025 MPC Meeting
  • Hold at 5.00%: 45% probability
  • Cut to 4.75%: 55% probability
  • Market Consensus: Lean towards cut
Detailed Analysis →

Global Monetary Policy Comparison

Cross-jurisdictional analysis of central bank policy divergence and synchronization

Policy Divergence Tracker
Current Policy Stance
  • Fed: Hawkish hold (4.25-4.50%)
  • ECB: Dovish hold (3.25%)
  • BoE: Neutral/cut bias (5.00%)
Synchronization Level
35% Synchronized (Low) Global Analysis →